North Atlantic oscillation controls multidecadal changes in the North Tropical Atlantic−Pacific connection

DING Ruiqiang | Nature Communications

North Atlantic oscillation controls multidecadal changes in the North Tropical Atlantic−Pacific connection

Ruiqiang Ding, Hyacinth C. Nnamchi, Jin-Yi Yu, Tim Li, Cheng Sun, Jianping Li, Yu‐Heng Tseng, Xichen Li, Fei Xie, Juan Feng, Kai Ji & Xumin Li

Nature Communications

Published February 16 2023

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-36564-3

Abstract

By exciting subtropical teleconnections, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) during boreal spring can trigger El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in the following boreal winter, thereby providing a precursor for ENSO predictability. However, this NTA−ENSO connection is not stationary, and it varies considerably over multidecadal timescales, which cannot be directly explained by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation or the global warming trend. Here we show that multidecadal changes in the NTA−ENSO connection are principally controlled by multidecadal variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). During the positive phase of the NAO, the amplification of the NTA impact on ENSO mainly arises from strengthening of the boreal spring mean precipitation over the equatorial Atlantic and enhancement of the persistence of NTA SST anomalies, which enhance the NTA influence by exciting stronger and more persistent subtropical teleconnections. Our findings show that multidecadal variability of the NAO is key to understanding the impacts of the NTA SST on the tropical Pacific Ocean.

Fig. 1: Schematic representation of two major mechanisms behind the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) modulation of the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA)−El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) connection.